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Tropical Depression DEBBY


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING APPROXIMATELY 150 NMI TO THE NORTH OF THE EXPOSED
CIRCULATION CENTER...A PRODUCT OF THE STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR. 
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED TO 25 KT...WITH
THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOLLOWING SUIT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR DEBBY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 36 HOURS. DEBBY WILL THEN ULTIMATELY
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.   
 
DEBBY IS MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/7.  THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE
UKMET ALL SUGGEST THAT DEBBY WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. 
THE UKMET INDICATES A INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE FRONT.  ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFS AND ECMWF REVEAL A MORE RAPID ABSORPTION
PHASE...BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS VERY POSSIBLE.  DEBBY SHOULD
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...A TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS DEBBY COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 25.6N  47.3W    25 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 26.7N  48.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 29.5N  49.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 33.0N  48.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:35 UTC