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Tropical Depression DEBBY (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006
 
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT DEBBY IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN.  IN
ADDITION... THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION SUGGESTS
THAT DEBBY IS LOOKING LESS TROPICAL THAN EARLIER WITH ONLY SCANT
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL NORTHWARD OF THE CENTER.  MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE LOWERED TO 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY WHILE DEBBY IS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR. DEBBY COULD EITHER
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY... AS SUGGESTED BY THE PHASE SPACE
DIAGRAMS FROM FSU... OR A REMNANT LOW IF THE CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED.   SOME EXTRATROPICAL RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE IN LINE WITH A FEW GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS... THOUGH
THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH LEFT BY THEN.
 
DEBBY IS HEADING MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...
290/11.   THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH UNTIL IT FINDS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE... EVENTUALLY
ACCELERATING IN A DAY OR SO AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD REPRESENTATION
OF THE WEAK CYCLONE AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED
WESTWARD CLOSER TO THEIR SOLUTIONS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0900Z 25.3N  46.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 26.4N  48.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 28.6N  49.1W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     27/1800Z 31.5N  48.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     28/0600Z 34.5N  47.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     29/0600Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
 
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