Tropical Storm DEBBY

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TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006
500 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF
THE STORM WITH A SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN FORMING.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE CONSERVATIVELY KEPT AT 40 KT IN BETWEEN
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35-45 KT.  A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY DUE TO SLOWLY INCREASING SSTS AND
FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY SHEAR IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...
SSTS RISE A BIT FASTER BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY
SHEAR WILL INCREASE.  INTENSITY GUIDANCE DIVERGES BEYOND TWO
DAYS... AS SHIPS NEVER MAKES DEBBY A HURRICANE WHILE THE GFDL
INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY DAY THREE. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE MODELS AND
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.    

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME...300/17.  THIS
GENERAL TRACK IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR-TERM AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
IN BETWEEN A BUILDING MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST.  BEYOND 24-36
HOURS... A BREAK IN THE TROPICAL RIDGE FORMS NEAR 55W.  THIS
BREAK SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST THEN NORTH... THOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST TO TAKE
DEBBY NORTHWARD.  THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST MODEL.... SHOOTING THE
STORM INTO THE MID-LATITUDES NORTH OF 40N IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.  THE
NOGAPS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER... SHOWING A WEAKER TROUGH AND KEEPING
DEBBY SOUTH OF 32N THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
A LITTLE FASTER THAN 6 HOURS AGO... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS SUIT... A BIT SOUTH OF THE GUNS CONSENSUS. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 19.6N  36.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 20.6N  38.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 21.8N  41.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 23.0N  44.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 24.5N  47.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 27.5N  50.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     28/0600Z 30.5N  51.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     29/0600Z 34.5N  49.5W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
 
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