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Tropical Depression CHRIS


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006               
0300 UTC SAT AUG 05 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   4(13)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 
ANDROS         34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   2(13)   X(13)   1(14)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   1( 1)   9(10)   2(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 218N  758W 34  7   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 12 218N  758W 50  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 12 218N  758W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 222N  783W 34  X   9( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 24 222N  783W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 24 222N  783W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 228N  810W 34  X   1( 1)   9(10)   3(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 36 228N  810W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 36 228N  810W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 233N  838W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   5(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 48 233N  838W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 48 233N  838W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 240N  890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   5(15)   1(16)
 72 240N  890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 72 240N  890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
 
 96 245N  945W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   3(14)
 96 245N  945W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 96 245N  945W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 250N  995W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
120 250N  995W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 250N  995W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     25     25      25      25      30      35      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:35 UTC