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Tropical Depression CHRIS


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006               
2100 UTC FRI AUG 04 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   4(14)   X(14)   1(15)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   4(16)   1(17)   X(17)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
ANDROS         34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  1   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   2(12)   1(13)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   7(19)   1(20)   X(20)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   1(13)   X(13)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   8(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   6( 6)   7(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 217N  745W 34 18   5(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 12 217N  745W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 217N  745W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 221N  769W 34  1  16(17)   6(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 24 221N  769W 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 24 221N  769W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 226N  794W 34  X   2( 2)  12(14)   5(19)   1(20)   1(21)   X(21)
 36 226N  794W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 226N  794W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 232N  820W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   5(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 48 232N  820W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 48 232N  820W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 242N  870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   6(19)   X(19)
 72 242N  870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 72 242N  870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 250N  925W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   4(17)
 96 250N  925W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 96 250N  925W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 255N  980W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
120 255N  980W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
120 255N  980W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     30      30      30      35      40      45
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN                                                   
                                                                    
                                                                    
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