Tropical Depression CHRIS
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
2100 UTC FRI AUG 04 2006
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) X(14) 1(15)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
ANDROS 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11)
GREAT EXUMA 34 1 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MAYAGUANA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 1(13)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 7(19) 1(20) X(20)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAMAGUEY 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 217N 745W 34 18 5(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
12 217N 745W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
12 217N 745W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
24 221N 769W 34 1 16(17) 6(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
24 221N 769W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
24 221N 769W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
36 226N 794W 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 5(19) 1(20) 1(21) X(21)
36 226N 794W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
36 226N 794W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
48 232N 820W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18)
48 232N 820W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
48 232N 820W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
72 242N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 6(19) X(19)
72 242N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
72 242N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
96 250N 925W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17)
96 250N 925W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
96 250N 925W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 255N 980W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10)
120 255N 980W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
120 255N 980W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 30 30 30 30 35 40 45
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN
NNNN