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Tropical Storm CHRIS


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006               
2100 UTC THU AUG 03 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   4(15)   X(15)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   1(15)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)   1(14)   X(14)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   3(15)   X(15)   1(16)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   7( 7)  12(19)   1(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
GRAND TURK     34  3  23(26)   3(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   1(11)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   1(15)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   1(11)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   1(13)   1(14)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   6(14)   1(15)   X(15)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  3   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 209N  698W 34 18  16(34)   X(34)   X(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 12 209N  698W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 209N  698W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 213N  720W 34  1  19(20)   8(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 24 213N  720W 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 24 213N  720W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 217N  743W 34  X   3( 3)  16(19)   6(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 36 217N  743W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 217N  743W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 222N  769W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   5(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 48 222N  769W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 48 222N  769W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 233N  820W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   1(15)
 72 233N  820W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 72 233N  820W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 245N  870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   3(13)
 96 245N  870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 96 245N  870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 255N  920W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
120 255N  920W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 255N  920W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     30      30      30      30      30      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:35 UTC