Tropical Storm CHRIS
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1500 UTC THU AUG 03 2006
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 2(13)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11)
MAYAGUANA 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND TURK 34 1 13(14) 9(23) 1(24) X(24) 1(25) X(25)
GRAND TURK 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 1(13)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) X(13)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
PUERTO PLATA 34 1 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 207N 689W 34 16 10(26) X(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
12 207N 689W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
12 207N 689W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
24 211N 709W 34 1 17(18) 7(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
24 211N 709W 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
24 211N 709W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
36 214N 730W 34 X 4( 4) 13(17) 5(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24)
36 214N 730W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
36 214N 730W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
48 218N 752W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19)
48 218N 752W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
48 218N 752W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
72 230N 800W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 1(15)
72 230N 800W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
72 230N 800W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
96 240N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12)
96 240N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
96 240N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
120 250N 900W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
120 250N 900W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
120 250N 900W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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