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Tropical Storm CHRIS


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006               
1500 UTC THU AUG 03 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   1(13)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   2(13)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)  10(12)   2(14)   X(14)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   6(14)   1(15)   X(15)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   3( 3)  11(14)   5(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND TURK     34  1  13(14)   9(23)   1(24)   X(24)   1(25)   X(25)
GRAND TURK     50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   1(13)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   1(11)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)   1(13)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   2(13)   X(13)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   1(12)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  1   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 207N  689W 34 16  10(26)   X(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 12 207N  689W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 207N  689W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 211N  709W 34  1  17(18)   7(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 24 211N  709W 50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 24 211N  709W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 214N  730W 34  X   4( 4)  13(17)   5(22)   2(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 36 214N  730W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 214N  730W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 218N  752W 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   4(18)   1(19)   X(19)
 48 218N  752W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 48 218N  752W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 230N  800W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   1(15)
 72 230N  800W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 72 230N  800W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 240N  850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   3(12)
 96 240N  850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 96 240N  850W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 250N  900W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
120 250N  900W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 250N  900W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     30      30      30      30      30      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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