ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 0900 UTC THU AUG 03 2006 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) 1(12) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) X(16) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) 1(19) 1(20) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) MAYAGUANA 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 10(21) 3(24) X(24) 1(25) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 1 8( 9) 19(28) 3(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 2(15) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) 1(17) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) 1(17) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) 1(16) X(16) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 1 9(10) 11(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) PUERTO PLATA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 205N 680W 34 27 19(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) 12 205N 680W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 12 205N 680W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 208N 700W 34 2 25(27) 11(38) 1(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) 24 208N 700W 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 24 208N 700W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 212N 720W 34 X 5( 5) 19(24) 7(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) 36 212N 720W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 36 212N 720W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 215N 740W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) 6(26) X(26) 1(27) 48 215N 740W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 48 215N 740W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 225N 790W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) 1(18) 72 225N 790W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 72 225N 790W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 96 230N 840W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) 96 230N 840W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 96 230N 840W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 235N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 120 235N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 235N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:35 UTC