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Tropical Storm CHRIS (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006               
0900 UTC THU AUG 03 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   2(14)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   2(14)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   2(11)   1(12)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   3(16)   X(16)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  12(18)   1(19)   1(20)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   6(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   2( 2)   9(11)  10(21)   3(24)   X(24)   1(25)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND TURK     34  1   8( 9)  19(28)   3(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   2(15)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   2(14)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   7(16)   1(17)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   2(16)   1(17)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   7(15)   1(16)   X(16)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  1   9(10)  11(21)   2(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 205N  680W 34 27  19(46)   1(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 12 205N  680W 50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 12 205N  680W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 208N  700W 34  2  25(27)  11(38)   1(39)   1(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 24 208N  700W 50  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 24 208N  700W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 212N  720W 34  X   5( 5)  19(24)   7(31)   2(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 36 212N  720W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 36 212N  720W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 215N  740W 34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  13(20)   6(26)   X(26)   1(27)
 48 215N  740W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 48 215N  740W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 225N  790W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   5(17)   1(18)
 72 225N  790W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 72 225N  790W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 230N  840W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   4(14)
 96 230N  840W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 96 230N  840W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 235N  890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)
120 235N  890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 235N  890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     35      35      35      35      35      35
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:35 UTC