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Tropical Storm CHRIS


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006               
0300 UTC THU AUG 03 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   2(12)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)   2(16)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  11(18)   4(22)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  11(17)   5(22)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   2(14)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   3(12)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BELIZE         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   2(12)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   5(19)   1(20)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)   6(26)   2(28)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  23(29)   4(33)   X(33)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   X(11)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  17(23)   2(25)   1(26)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  20(26)  15(41)   1(42)   X(42)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   8(16)   1(17)   X(17)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   2( 2)  23(25)  20(45)   7(52)   X(52)   1(53)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   7( 7)  12(19)   2(21)   1(22)   X(22)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   8(19)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  13(18)   6(24)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)   4(22)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  13(24)   4(28)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)
CIENFUEGOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  20(22)   9(31)   1(32)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   1(11)
CAMAGUEY       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  17(25)   2(27)   1(28)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)   3(17)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)   1(12)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   1(11)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   2(14)   X(14)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   6(15)   X(15)   X(15)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   2( 2)  22(24)  12(36)   3(39)   X(39)   X(39)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   7(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PONCE          34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN JUAN       34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 201N  662W 34 45  34(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
 12 201N  662W 50 20  12(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 12 201N  662W 64  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 24 204N  680W 34  1  46(47)  17(64)   2(66)   1(67)   X(67)   X(67)
 24 204N  680W 50  X  21(21)  10(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 24 204N  680W 64  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 36 208N  702W 34  X   5( 5)  37(42)  11(53)   3(56)   1(57)   X(57)
 36 208N  702W 50  X   1( 1)  16(17)   7(24)   2(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 36 208N  702W 64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 48 212N  725W 34  X   1( 1)  11(12)  24(36)  11(47)   1(48)   X(48)
 48 212N  725W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   5(20)   1(21)   X(21)
 48 212N  725W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 72 220N  775W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  25(27)   7(34)   1(35)
 72 220N  775W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)   1(13)
 72 220N  775W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
 
 96 225N  825W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  14(19)   5(24)
 96 225N  825W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 96 225N  825W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
 
120 235N  875W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   8(15)
120 235N  875W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
120 235N  875W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     55      60      60      60      45      60
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:35 UTC