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Tropical Storm CHRIS


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006               
2100 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   8(15)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   8(14)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   5(18)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   6(21)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  11(20)   4(24)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  10(20)   3(23)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)   7(29)   3(32)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  20(29)   4(33)   1(34)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   1(12)   X(12)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   5(14)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   4(19)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  10(19)   2(21)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   4(13)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)   1(13)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   3(13)   1(14)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)  13(23)   3(26)   X(26)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   7(16)   2(18)   X(18)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
PONCE          34  X   1( 1)  11(12)   5(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   5( 5)  17(22)   4(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
SAN JUAN       50  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X  18(18)  13(31)   2(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X  11(11)   6(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34 25  28(53)   2(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  3   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 15   5(20)   X(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
BARBUDA        34 64   1(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
BARBUDA        50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ANTIGUA        34 16   1(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 183N  626W 34 42  19(61)   1(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 12 183N  626W 50  8   4(12)   X(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 12 183N  626W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 191N  645W 34  1  32(33)  14(47)   1(48)   X(48)   1(49)   X(49)
 24 191N  645W 50  X   8( 8)   6(14)   X(14)   X(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 24 191N  645W 64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 199N  666W 34  X   3( 3)  31(34)   9(43)   3(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 36 199N  666W 50  X   1( 1)  10(11)   4(15)   1(16)   X(16)   1(17)
 36 199N  666W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 48 205N  687W 34  X   X( X)  10(10)  20(30)   8(38)   1(39)   X(39)
 48 205N  687W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 48 205N  687W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 72 215N  730W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  20(23)   8(31)   2(33)
 72 215N  730W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   1(11)
 72 215N  730W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
 
 96 225N  770W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  12(19)   5(24)
 96 225N  770W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
 96 225N  770W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
120 235N  805W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   7(16)
120 235N  805W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
120 235N  805W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     45      50      50      50      55      55
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:35 UTC