Tropical Storm CHRIS
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1500 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 6(17)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 7(20)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 5(23)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) 4(23)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 10(28) 2(30)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 21(29) 4(33) 2(35)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) 1(12)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 3(18)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 1(13)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 14(22) 3(25) 1(26)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) 1(17) 1(18)
SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
PONCE 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19) 2(21) 1(22) X(22)
PONCE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAN JUAN 34 X 2( 2) 21(23) 5(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X 13(13) 21(34) 2(36) X(36) 1(37) X(37)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
SAINT CROIX 34 X 9( 9) 11(20) 2(22) X(22) 1(23) X(23)
SAINT CROIX 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 3 44(47) 4(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 1 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 4 18(22) 1(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BARBUDA 34 37 15(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
BARBUDA 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ANTIGUA 34 16 7(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
GUADELOUPE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
AVES 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 179N 619W 34 36 24(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
12 179N 619W 50 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
12 179N 619W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 188N 641W 34 X 34(34) 16(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
24 188N 641W 50 X 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
24 188N 641W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
36 197N 663W 34 X 3( 3) 32(35) 9(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47)
36 197N 663W 50 X X( X) 10(10) 5(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17)
36 197N 663W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
48 204N 684W 34 X X( X) 11(11) 19(30) 8(38) 2(40) X(40)
48 204N 684W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) X(14) 1(15)
48 204N 684W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
72 217N 720W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 7(31) 2(33)
72 217N 720W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 1(11)
72 217N 720W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
96 230N 755W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 3(23)
96 230N 755W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
96 230N 755W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
120 240N 785W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 7(18)
120 240N 785W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
120 240N 785W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40 45 50 50 50 50 50
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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