Tropical Storm BERYL
ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
0900 UTC WED JUL 19 2006
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) X(19)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) X(18)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) X(19)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 12(29) X(29)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 13(26) X(26)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 11(27) X(27)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 7(31) X(31)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 3(34) X(34)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10)
YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) X(20)
MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 4(21) X(21)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 3(22) X(22)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 2(22) X(22)
BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) X(18) X(18)
AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 10(19) 1(20) X(20)
PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 6(18) 1(19) X(19)
BOSTON MA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 13(21) 11(32) 1(33) X(33)
BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
HYANNIS MA 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 19(31) 12(43) X(43) X(43)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14)
HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 22(36) 12(48) 1(49) X(49)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 15(30) 8(38) 1(39) X(39)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10)
HARTFORD CT 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 9(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28)
HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X 4( 4) 17(21) 15(36) 6(42) 1(43) X(43)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13)
MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW YORK CITY 34 1 7( 8) 16(24) 9(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35)
NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NEWARK NJ 34 1 6( 7) 13(20) 7(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29)
NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
TRENTON NJ 34 1 7( 8) 12(20) 6(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27)
TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 1 14(15) 20(35) 6(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BALTIMORE MD 34 1 6( 7) 7(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
DOVER DE 34 1 13(14) 13(27) 3(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31)
DOVER DE 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 1 7( 8) 8(16) 1(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
WASHINGTON DC 34 1 6( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 3 22(25) 17(42) 3(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
RICHMOND VA 34 1 8( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14)
NORFOLK VA 34 5 15(20) 6(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
RALEIGH NC 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 14 10(24) 3(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
WILMINGTON NC 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 357N 737W 34 68 10(78) 3(81) X(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82)
12 357N 737W 50 5 10(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
12 357N 737W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 369N 737W 34 35 33(68) 8(76) 1(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78)
24 369N 737W 50 1 15(16) 7(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
24 369N 737W 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
36 386N 728W 34 4 27(31) 30(61) 7(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69)
36 386N 728W 50 X 3( 3) 16(19) 6(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26)
36 386N 728W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
48 403N 707W 34 1 5( 6) 21(27) 21(48) 8(56) 1(57) X(57)
48 403N 707W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20)
48 403N 707W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
72 440N 640W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 5(33) X(33)
72 440N 640W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10)
72 440N 640W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
96 470N 550W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16)
96 470N 550W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
96 470N 550W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40 45 50 50 45 35 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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