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Tropical Storm BERYL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022006               
0900 UTC WED JUL 19 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   X(14)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  14(19)   X(19)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  12(18)   X(18)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  12(19)   X(19)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  12(29)   X(29)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  13(26)   X(26)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  11(27)   X(27)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)   7(31)   X(31)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  27(31)   3(34)   X(34)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
YARMOUTH NS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   5(20)   X(20)
MONCTON NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   4(21)   X(21)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)   3(22)   X(22)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  15(20)   2(22)   X(22)
BAR HARBOR ME  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  11(18)   X(18)   X(18)
AUGUSTA ME     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)  10(19)   1(20)   X(20)
PORTLAND ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   6(18)   1(19)   X(19)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  13(21)  11(32)   1(33)   X(33)
BOSTON MA      50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   2( 2)  10(12)  19(31)  12(43)   X(43)   X(43)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   6(14)   X(14)   X(14)
HYANNIS MA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   2( 2)  12(14)  22(36)  12(48)   1(49)   X(49)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   7(16)   X(16)   X(16)
NANTUCKET MA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   3( 3)  12(15)  15(30)   8(38)   1(39)   X(39)
PROVIDENCE RI  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   3( 3)  11(14)   9(23)   5(28)   X(28)   X(28)
HARTFORD CT    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   4( 4)  17(21)  15(36)   6(42)   1(43)   X(43)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)
MONTAUK POINT  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  1   7( 8)  16(24)   9(33)   2(35)   X(35)   X(35)
NEW YORK CITY  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  1   6( 7)  13(20)   7(27)   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)
NEWARK NJ      50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  1   7( 8)  12(20)   6(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
TRENTON NJ     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  1  14(15)  20(35)   6(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
ATLANTIC CITY  50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  1   6( 7)   7(14)   1(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
DOVER DE       34  1  13(14)  13(27)   3(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)
DOVER DE       50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  1   7( 8)   8(16)   1(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  1   6( 7)   5(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  3  22(25)  17(42)   3(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  1   8( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  5  15(20)   6(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34 14  10(24)   3(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  3   5( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 357N  737W 34 68  10(78)   3(81)   X(81)   1(82)   X(82)   X(82)
 12 357N  737W 50  5  10(15)   1(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 12 357N  737W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 369N  737W 34 35  33(68)   8(76)   1(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)
 24 369N  737W 50  1  15(16)   7(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 24 369N  737W 64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 36 386N  728W 34  4  27(31)  30(61)   7(68)   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)
 36 386N  728W 50  X   3( 3)  16(19)   6(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 36 386N  728W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
 48 403N  707W 34  1   5( 6)  21(27)  21(48)   8(56)   1(57)   X(57)
 48 403N  707W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   5(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 48 403N  707W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
 
 72 440N  640W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  26(28)   5(33)   X(33)
 72 440N  640W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 72 440N  640W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 96 470N  550W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   X(16)
 96 470N  550W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 96 470N  550W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     45      50      50      45      35       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:33 UTC