Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm BERYL


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022006
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006
 
OBSERVATIONS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FROM ABOUT 3 HOURS AGO...
QUIKSCAT DATA...AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT BERYL HAS NOT
CHANGED IN INTENSITY AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 50 KNOTS. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DECREASE AS A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION
MOVES OVER INCREASING COOLER WATERS. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT BERYL HAS
REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
BERYL IS EXPECTED TO BE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE TIME IT
APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND
BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THEREAFTER.
 
BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 11
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THEREFORE...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST. ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE WILL BE
PASSING VERY NEAR THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE BERYL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL...MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL EXTEND WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AS IT IS COMMON IN THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM.
 
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF CONNECTICUT AND
RHODE ISLAND.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 38.8N  72.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 39.8N  72.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 41.7N  69.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 43.5N  65.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     22/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:33 UTC