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Tropical Storm ALBERTO (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006
1100 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006
 
ALBERTO HAS ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND
BANDING FEATURES HAVE REMAINED INTACT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
WSR-88D DOPPLER VELOCITIES FROM CHARLESTON AND JACKSONVILLE
INDICATED A FAIRLY LONG AND WIDE SWATH OF 50-KT AND STRONGER WINDS
EXTENDING FROM 1000 THROUGH 8000 FT ASL ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AND
INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. WHILE THE CONVECTION IS NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE... IT APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
DOWN ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THOSE WINDS TO THE SURFACE AS A 1-MINUTE
SUSTAINED WIND...ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS OF 45-50 KT. NUMEROUS REPORTS
OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWNED BY STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED
FROM SAVANNAH AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ALSO...NOAA BUOY 41008 OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 31 KT WITH A
GUST TO 39 KT AT A 5-METER HEIGHT. THEREFORE... ALBERTO WILL REMAIN
A TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY... AND COASTAL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER.
 
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR
REASONING. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD ALBERTO AND
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE U.S. EAST
COAST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS... AND THEN MORE EASTWARD AFTER
THAT. THIS SCENARIO IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE VERY TIGHTLY
PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.

ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONT OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA OR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY 12-18 HOURS. GIVEN THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...STRENGTHENING
INTO A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL GALE AREA OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS SEEMS QUITE PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE
THAT ALBERTO MAY NOT DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS... WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A NORTHWARD 
EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT ADVISORY.
 
THERE IS A THREAT OF FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
 
FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0300Z 31.8N  82.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 33.6N  80.2W    30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 36.4N  75.2W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 39.6N  68.7W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     16/0000Z 43.0N  62.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     17/0000Z 49.5N  47.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     18/0000Z 54.0N  30.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     19/0000Z 55.0N  10.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

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