Tropical Storm ALBERTO

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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006
 
WITH A SLUG OF DRY AIR OVERTAKING THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...
ALBERTO'S CHANCES OF BECOMING A HURRICANE ARE EVAPORATING.   THERE
IS NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE CYCLONE IS TAKING ON
A LESS-THAN-TROPICAL APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE WIND
FIELD HAS ALSO BROADENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. 
PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT
WERE 64 KT...WHICH GIVEN THE RELATIVE LACK OF CONVECTION...WOULD
CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE.  A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 0Z
DID SHOW WINDS AS HIGH AS 55 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/8.  AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE MOVES
EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...BUILDING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE TRACK A LITTLE TO THE LEFT BEFORE
ALBERTO GETS PICKED UP BY THE NEXT SHORT WAVE.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE CENTER OVER LAND FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...ALBERTO SHOULD ACCELERATE IN THE
WESTERLIES AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER 72
HOURS...AND IS IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

SINCE THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF ALBERTO WILL DECAY ONLY SLOWLY AFTER
LANDFALL...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF ONSHORE WINDS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE NORTH OF THE PRESENT WARNING AREA ON THE ATLANTIC
COAST.  THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0900Z 29.2N  84.2W    55 KT
 12HR VT     13/1800Z 30.3N  83.4W    45 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     14/0600Z 32.1N  81.9W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     14/1800Z 34.4N  78.9W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     15/0600Z 37.0N  73.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     16/0600Z 43.5N  62.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     17/0600Z 50.5N  48.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     18/0600Z 55.0N  25.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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