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Tropical Depression ONE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006
500 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006
 
THE DEPRESSION IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN A SINGLE COHERENT SURFACE
CIRCULATION.  A SERIES OF SMALL VORTICES HAVE ALL DAY BEEN ROTATING
ABOUT THE MEAN CENTER OF THE BROADER CIRCULATION THAT IS EXTREMELY
ELONGATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.  EVEN GIVEN DATA FROM THE AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT IS STILL INVESTIGATING THE
SYSTEM... WHERE TO SPECIFY A CIRCULATION CENTER IS VERY
CHALLENGING.  RECON FOUND A WIND SHIFT AND A BROAD PRESSURE MINIMUM
IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT ABOUT 18Z... BUT THAT DID NOT QUALIFY AS
A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF A VORTEX.  THE AIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING
OTHER PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION TO HELP DETERMINE WHERE THE
CENTER IS LOCATED.  FOR NOW I HAVE PLACED THE ADVISORY POSITION AT
ABOUT THE CENTROID OF THE BROAD CLOUD CIRCULATION SEEN IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY... WHICH RESULTS IN A NET MOTION OF ABOUT 5 KT TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE ELONGATED CENTER. 
IN ADDITION TO THE INTERNAL DISORGANIZATION... THE DEPRESSION IS
BATTLING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IN BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... AND DRY AIR OVER THE GULF
THAT IMPINGING ON WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.  SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST 30 KT REMAINS A GOOD
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE.

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST ARE BOTH HIGHLY UNCERTAIN... DUE TO
THE CURRENT STATE OF THE SYSTEM AND SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN
A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT ITS STAY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND CROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... THEY
DISAGREE GREATLY ON THE TIMING.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SLOWER THAN BUT OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE
CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS... OR BASICALLY AN AVERAGE OF THE
VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS AT
45 KT OVER THE GULF... LESS THAN IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES... TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT POOR ORGANIZATION AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.  EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS STILL EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD NEAR
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/2100Z 21.8N  85.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 23.2N  86.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     11/1800Z 25.0N  86.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     12/0600Z 26.5N  86.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     12/1800Z 28.1N  84.1W    45 KT
 72HR VT     13/1800Z 31.5N  79.5W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     14/1800Z 37.5N  71.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     15/1800Z 47.5N  60.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:33 UTC