Tropical Storm EMILY

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST WED JUL 13 2005

...OUTER BANDS OF EMILY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DOWNGRADED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO...GRENADA...
THE GRENADINES... ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
TRINIDAD.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.
 
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS.  A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST OR ABOUT 260
MILES... 420 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 345 MILES... 550
KM...EAST OF TRINIDAD.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY THIS MORNING.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COASTAL
AREA OF VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...11.1 N... 56.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
AST.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
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