Hurricane DENNIS

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HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

...HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... 

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WESTWARD. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...
CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.  A HURRICANE
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING PROVINCES OF CUBA
INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE
LA HABANA...AND HOLGUIN.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY.  ALSO AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN
BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH ON THE
WEST COAST.
 
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF
JAMAICA...AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES... 125 KM... EAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 155 MILES...
250 KM...SOUTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR JAMAICA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  DENNIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  968 MB...28.59 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA.  THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.  A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE
OF 12 TO 14 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA FROM
CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...18.0 N... 75.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 968 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.
 
FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB
 
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