Tropical Storm ARLENE

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TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

...ARLENE STRENGTHENS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...
 
AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
TO ST MARKS FLORIDA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ALSO AT 11 AM
...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
DURING THE NEXT 36 HR.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
SATELLITE IMAGES...AIRCRAFT DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF ARLENE HAS REFORMED A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES... 705 KM... SOUTHEAST OF
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 470 MILES... 755
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.
 
ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN THE CENTER.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
...240 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH RAINS WITH ISOLATED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO OVER 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH ARLENE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE 
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 
WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
 
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...24.0 N... 84.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA
 
 
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