Hurricane OPHELIA
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TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
31.9N 76.7W 99 X X X 99 MOREHEAD CITY NC 4 5 3 3 15
32.0N 77.3W 99 X X X 99 CAPE HATTERAS NC X 2 3 4 9
32.3N 78.0W 29 1 X 1 31 NORFOLK VA X 1 2 5 8
MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 3 3
MYNN 251N 775W X X 1 3 4 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 2 2
MYGF 266N 787W X 1 3 4 8 KEY WEST FL X X X 3 3
MARATHON FL X X X 4 4 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 1 4 5
MIAMI FL X X 1 5 6 FT MYERS FL X X 1 5 6
W PALM BEACH FL X X 3 5 8 VENICE FL X X 1 5 6
FT PIERCE FL X 1 4 5 10 TAMPA FL X X 2 6 8
COCOA BEACH FL X 1 5 6 12 CEDAR KEY FL X X 2 7 9
DAYTONA BEACH FL X 1 6 6 13 ST MARKS FL X X 1 6 7
JACKSONVILLE FL X 1 6 6 13 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 5 5
SAVANNAH GA X 5 6 5 16 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 4 4
CHARLESTON SC 5 8 4 2 19 PENSACOLA FL X X X 2 2
MYRTLE BEACH SC 12 5 3 1 21 GULF 29N 85W X X X 4 4
WILMINGTON NC 11 5 2 2 20 GULF 29N 87W X X X 2 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN
C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON
D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER KNABB
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