Hurricane OTIS

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HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152005
2100Z FRI SEP 30 2005
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA
MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO.
THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG
BOTH COASTS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 111.2W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 200SE 180SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 111.2W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 111.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.3N 111.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 23.3N 112.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 24.4N 112.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 26.2N 113.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 28.7N 112.9W...NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 32.0N 112.0W...INLAND NWRN MEXICO
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 35.5N 110.0W...INLAND EASTERN ARIZONA
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 111.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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