Hurricane WILMA

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HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL242005
0300Z THU OCT 20 2005
 
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO PUNTA ALLEN.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING
COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.
 
AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST
OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.  A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF
PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN
TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD
THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N  84.3W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  894 MB
EYE DIAMETER   5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT....... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 110SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 175SW 275NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N  84.3W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  84.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N  85.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 110SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.8N  86.0W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.8N  86.5W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.8N  86.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE  90SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.0N  84.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...175NE 200SE  90SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.0N  80.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 38.0N  70.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N  84.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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