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Tropical Storm STAN (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202005
0300Z TUE OCT 04 2005
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE CENTER...AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO CHILITEPEC.  A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  93.4W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  45SE   0SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE  45SE   0SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  93.4W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  93.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.7N  94.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  45SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.4N  94.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  60SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.1N  95.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  60SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.9N  96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  60SE  40SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.5N  96.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N  93.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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