Hurricane EMILY

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HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052005
1500Z FRI JUL 15 2005
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  70.9W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  968 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  30SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE  70SE  40SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE  75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  70.9W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  70.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.0N  73.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  50SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.5N  77.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.0N  80.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N  83.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  80SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.0N  89.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  80SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 25.0N  94.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 26.0N  98.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N  70.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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