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Hurricane EMILY


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HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052005
0300Z THU JUL 14 2005
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA...ST. VINCENT...THE
GRENADINES...AND ST. LUCIA.
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD FROM CUMANA TO PUNTO FIJO ON THE
PARAGUANA PENINSULA.
 
AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD...
TOBAGO...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES
WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE
ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  61.1W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE  90SE  60SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  61.1W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N  60.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 12.5N  63.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.4N  66.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.5N  70.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.5N  73.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.5N  79.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N  85.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 21.0N  90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N  61.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
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