Tropical Storm EMILY

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TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052005
2100Z WED JUL 13 2005
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...
TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...ST.
LUCIA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES
WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA...AND FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO
CARACAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.
 
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N  59.8W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE  90SE  60SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N  59.8W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N  59.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 11.9N  62.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 12.8N  65.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.8N  68.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.7N  71.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.5N  78.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 18.5N  84.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 20.0N  89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N  59.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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