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Tropical Storm EMILY (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052005
1500Z TUE JUL 12 2005
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
BARBADOS...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST.
LUCIA...BY THE APPROPRIATE GOVERNMENTS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N  51.3W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE  20SE  20SW  45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  30SE  30SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N  51.3W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N  50.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 11.4N  53.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 11.9N  57.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 12.8N  60.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.0N  63.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.0N  69.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 18.0N  75.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N  80.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N  51.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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