Hurricane DENNIS

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HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042005
1500Z THU JUL 07 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WESTWARD. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...
CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.  A HURRICANE
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING PROVINCES OF CUBA
INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE
LA HABANA...AND HOLGUIN.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY.  ALSO AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN
BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH ON THE
WEST COAST.
 
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF
JAMAICA...AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  75.6W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  968 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 75NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT.......120NE  90SE  75SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  75.6W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  75.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.3N  77.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 75NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.3N  79.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 75NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.8N  81.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 75NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.7N  83.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.7N  86.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 33.5N  88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 37.5N  90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N  75.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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