Tropical Storm ARLENE

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TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012005
1500Z THU JUN 09 2005
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM
PINAR DEL RIO TO CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  84.1W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......130NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..130NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  84.1W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  84.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.5N  84.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...130NE  75SE   0SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.8N  85.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...130NE  75SE   0SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.0N  86.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT...130NE  75SE   0SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.5N  87.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 34.0N  88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 38.5N  85.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N  84.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB
 
 
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