Tropical Storm ARLENE

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TROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012005
1200Z THU JUN 09 2005
 
AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE CITY OF HAVANA AND
HAVANA PROVINCE.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO HAVANA PROVINCE...INCLUDING THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  84.0W AT 09/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......130NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..130NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  84.0W AT 09/1200Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N  83.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.0N  84.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...130NE  75SE   0SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.2N  84.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...130NE  75SE   0SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.7N  85.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...130NE  75SE   0SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.2N  87.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.5N  88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  75SE  50SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 36.5N  87.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N  84.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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