ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0900Z THU SEP 22 2005 ...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005... AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 150 KTS...175 MPH...280 KM/HR. CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 34 4 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) 1(13) 2(15) MOBILE AL 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 1(14) 2(16) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 1 5( 6) 7(13) 5(18) 4(22) 1(23) 2(25) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) BURAS LA 34 4 13(17) 13(30) 5(35) 3(38) 1(39) 1(40) BURAS LA 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 1(11) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 27 24(51) 5(56) 1(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) GFMX 280N 890W 50 2 8(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 11(20) 2(22) 1(23) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 9(10) 16(26) 9(35) 6(41) 1(42) 1(43) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 1(13) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 13 53(66) 14(80) 3(83) 2(85) X(85) X(85) GFMX 280N 910W 50 1 21(22) 22(44) 3(47) 1(48) X(48) 1(49) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 7( 7) 14(21) 3(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 6( 6) 18(24) 17(41) 9(50) 1(51) X(51) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 5(16) X(16) 1(17) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 34 1 8( 9) 28(37) 19(56) 8(64) X(64) X(64) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) 6(27) 1(28) 1(29) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 35(37) 39(76) 11(87) 4(91) 1(92) X(92) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 7( 7) 41(48) 17(65) 5(70) 2(72) 1(73) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X 2( 2) 25(27) 15(42) 6(48) 1(49) 1(50) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 30(49) 2(51) 1(52) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) SHREVEPORT LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 4( 4) 27(31) 31(62) 16(78) 2(80) 1(81) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 14(48) 2(50) 1(51) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 12(29) 2(31) X(31) GALVESTON TX 34 X 5( 5) 29(34) 31(65) 15(80) 3(83) 1(84) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 12(12) 27(39) 15(54) 2(56) 2(58) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 12(35) 1(36) 1(37) HOUSTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) 32(55) 19(74) 3(77) 2(79) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 17(44) 2(46) 1(47) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26) 1(27) X(27) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 19(37) 3(40) 2(42) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) AUSTIN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 14(25) 4(29) 1(30) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) SAN ANTONIO TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X 3( 3) 28(31) 29(60) 16(76) 3(79) 1(80) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 24(33) 14(47) 2(49) 2(51) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 11(30) 2(32) X(32) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 8( 8) 34(42) 24(66) 11(77) 2(79) 2(81) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 1( 1) 18(19) 21(40) 11(51) 3(54) 2(56) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) 9(33) 3(36) 1(37) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 23(43) 16(59) 4(63) 2(65) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 11(29) 3(32) 2(34) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 8(17) 2(19) 1(20) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 11(33) 5(38) 2(40) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 2(14) 1(15) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 4( 4) 20(24) 16(40) 10(50) 4(54) 2(56) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 6(22) 3(25) 2(27) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 1(15) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 6(16) 4(20) 1(21) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 5(18) 3(21) 1(22) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) MERIDA MX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 253N 893W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 253N 893W 50 94 3(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 12 253N 893W 64 78 10(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 1(89) 24 261N 911W 34 66 29(95) 3(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 24 261N 911W 50 14 62(76) 7(83) 2(85) X(85) 1(86) X(86) 24 261N 911W 64 3 51(54) 13(67) 1(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) 36 272N 928W 34 5 50(55) 29(84) 7(91) 2(93) 1(94) X(94) 36 272N 928W 50 X 20(20) 39(59) 11(70) 4(74) 1(75) 1(76) 36 272N 928W 64 X 8( 8) 32(40) 12(52) 3(55) 2(57) X(57) 48 288N 943W 34 X 9( 9) 39(48) 27(75) 10(85) 2(87) 1(88) 48 288N 943W 50 X 1( 1) 21(22) 26(48) 12(60) 2(62) 2(64) 48 288N 943W 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) 10(40) 2(42) 1(43) 72 320N 955W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 32(54) 3(57) 1(58) 72 320N 955W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 1(23) 1(24) 72 320N 955W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) 96 341N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 5(36) X(36) 96 341N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) 1(13) 96 341N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 120 345N 945W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 4(32) 1(33) 120 345N 945W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) 120 345N 945W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 150 145 140 130 65 30 25 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) FORECASTER BEVEN $$ NNNN