ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ARLENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2100Z FRI JUN 10 2005 ...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005... AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS... 65 MPH... 100 KM/HR. CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 5 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARCO ISLAND 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT MYERS FL 34 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) VENICE FL 34 16 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) TAMPA FL 34 16 3(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) CEDAR KEY FL 34 18 6(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 12 23(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 16 22(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) ST MARKS FL 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 30 35(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) APALACHICOLA 50 4 19(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) GFMX 290N 850W 34 56 21(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) GFMX 290N 850W 50 18 23(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) PANAMA CITY FL 34 20 49(69) 2(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) PANAMA CITY FL 50 2 29(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 1 13(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MONTGOMERY AL 34 1 19(20) 10(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 4 52(56) 7(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) PENSACOLA FL 50 X 24(24) 6(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) PENSACOLA FL 64 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 17 53(70) 2(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) GFMX 290N 870W 50 2 35(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 1 28(29) 8(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) MOBILE AL 50 X 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GULFPORT MS 34 1 14(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GULFPORT MS 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 34 1 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 6( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) JACKSON MS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 278N 860W 34 75 16(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) 12 278N 860W 50 40 20(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) 12 278N 860W 64 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 24 304N 873W 34 4 52(56) 7(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 24 304N 873W 50 X 25(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 24 304N 873W 64 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 36 326N 879W 34 X 10(10) 12(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 36 326N 879W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 36 326N 879W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48 355N 875W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 48 355N 875W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 355N 875W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55 60 30 20 0 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA $$ NNNN