Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU OCT 20 2005
IT CONTINUES TO BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE A CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS
AND NO DOMINANT CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
CONTINUITY AS MUCH AS ANYTHING ELSE...AND IS WELL TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. THE
25-KNOT CURRENT INTENSITY IS IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. THE DEPRESSION IS APPROACHING AN AREA
OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 130W. THIS...ALONG WITH THE CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED STATE OF THE SYSTEM...MAKES STRENGTHENING UNLIKELY.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...UNLESS A DEFINITE CENTER IS IDENTIFIED
SOON...ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED...AGAIN...LATER TODAY.
THE INITIAL MOTION OF 285/10 IS A CRUDE ESTIMATE...AT BEST. THE
TROUGH ALONG 130W IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD. IF SIXTEEN-E WERE
A DEEP AND STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS TROUGH WOULD BRING ABOUT
A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOTION. HOWEVER THE DEPRESSION IS VERY
WEAK...AND WILL PROBABLY NOT RESPOND TO DEEP-LAYER STEERING. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM TRACK.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/1500Z 12.6N 118.3W 25 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 13.0N 119.7W 25 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 13.5N 121.1W 25 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 13.9N 122.0W 25 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 14.2N 122.5W 25 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 14.5N 123.5W 25 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 15.0N 124.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 25/1200Z 15.0N 125.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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