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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU OCT 20 2005
 
IT WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. IT IS EVEN HARDER TO
FIND IT NOW. IT APPEARS THAT CENTER WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING IS WELL
REMOVED FROM THE VERY LIMITED CONVECTION. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
INITIAL MOTION USING CONTINUITY IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS AND THE
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 25 KNOTS.  

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD OR WEST
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT SEEMS THAT THE CHANCES
FOR INTENSIFICATION ARE DIMINISHING SINCE THE CONVECTION IS
BECOMING MORE AND MORE SEPARATED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.
HOWEVER...WE ARE KEEPING THE SAME PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. VISIBLE IMAGES LATER TODAY COULD BE HELPFUL IN
CLARIFYING IF WE HAVE A DEPRESSION OR NOT.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0900Z 12.6N 117.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 13.0N 118.5W    25 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 13.5N 120.0W    25 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 14.0N 121.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 14.5N 122.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     23/0600Z 15.0N 122.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     24/0600Z 15.5N 123.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     25/0600Z 16.0N 124.0W    35 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 20-Oct-2005 08:25:24 UTC