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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED OCT 19 2005

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E HAS
ACQUIRED ENOUGH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO BE RE-CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING ISSUED AGAIN. 
MY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KT IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH A RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIRA/NESDIS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
ENVIRONMENT...SO ONLY VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST...280/9.  A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE...THAT IS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF SIXTEEN-E...IS
LIKELY TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN 3-5 DAYS...THE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL PROBABLY BECOME VERY WEAK BY THAT TIME. 
THUS...LITTLE MOVEMENT IS FORECAST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 12.2N 113.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 12.3N 115.0W    25 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 12.5N 116.9W    25 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 12.7N 118.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 13.2N 119.8W    35 KT
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 14.0N 121.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     24/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W    30 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 19-Oct-2005 14:40:23 UTC