ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON OCT 17 2005 AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS...FROM AROUND 1330Z...SUGGESTED THAT THE DEPRESSION WAS PROBABLY A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SHOWN IN THIS MORNING'S ADVISORY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEARTH OF DEEP CONVECTION IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN TODAY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 1.5 AND 1.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS MAINLY OF A SMALL...BUT WELL-DEFINED...LOW CLOUD SWIRL...WITH LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER. VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IMPLIES THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN A RATHER STABLE AIR MASS WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID- TROPOSPHERE. THIS...ALONG WITH THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION...ARGUES AGAINST RE-INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 48-72 HOURS. HOWEVER UNLESS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR/OVER THE CENTER... ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED QUITE SOON. INITIAL MOTION...270/8...IS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. A LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYLONE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 3 OR 4 DAYS. THIS REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD A STEERING FLOW THAT WILL CARRY THE DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT...MAINLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE THE PREVIOUS ONE...ONLY A SHADE FASTER. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 12.2N 107.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 12.2N 108.2W 25 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 12.2N 110.0W 25 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 12.1N 111.8W 25 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 12.0N 113.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 20/1800Z 12.0N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 21/1800Z 12.0N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 17-Oct-2005 20:40:23 UTC