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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON OCT 17 2005

AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS...FROM AROUND 1330Z...SUGGESTED THAT THE
DEPRESSION WAS PROBABLY A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SHOWN IN THIS
MORNING'S ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEARTH OF DEEP CONVECTION
IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN
TODAY.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 1.5 AND 1.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB
RESPECTIVELY AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT.  THE SYSTEM
CONSISTS MAINLY OF A SMALL...BUT WELL-DEFINED...LOW CLOUD
SWIRL...WITH LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER. 
VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IMPLIES THE
POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CYCLONE IS
EMBEDDED IN A RATHER STABLE AIR MASS WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID-
TROPOSPHERE.  THIS...ALONG WITH THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
CIRCULATION...ARGUES AGAINST RE-INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 48-72 HOURS. 
HOWEVER UNLESS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPS
NEAR/OVER THE CENTER... ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED QUITE
SOON.

INITIAL MOTION...270/8...IS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING.  A LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYLONE IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 3 OR 4
DAYS.  THIS REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD A STEERING FLOW THAT
WILL CARRY THE DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT...MAINLY WESTWARD.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE THE PREVIOUS ONE...ONLY A
SHADE FASTER.  

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/2100Z 12.2N 107.0W    25 KT
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 12.2N 108.2W    25 KT
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 12.2N 110.0W    25 KT
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 12.1N 111.8W    25 KT
 48HR VT     19/1800Z 12.0N 113.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     20/1800Z 12.0N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     21/1800Z 12.0N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 17-Oct-2005 20:40:23 UTC