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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2005
 
VISIBLE AND ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAD INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING... AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM... SUPPORTED SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM ALL CLASSIFYING AGENCIES.  HOWEVER...
RECENT SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION
CENTER IS SHEARED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BANDING
FEATURE... AND THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
CONSIDERABLY.  THEREFORE... BASED ON THE SHORT TERM CLOUD PATTERN
CHANGES... WE WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL AGREE ON A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO
MOVE WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.  IN FACT... THE GFDL FORECASTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME A HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE
SHIPS MODEL.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/7. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A MID- LAYER RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND
SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THIS STEERING CURRENT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER- LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT FASTER BEYOND
36 HOURS TO CONFORM WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 12.2N 104.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 12.3N 105.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 12.2N 107.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 11.9N 108.3W    40 KT
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 11.5N 109.8W    40 KT
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 11.0N 113.1W    45 KT
 96HR VT     21/0000Z 11.5N 116.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     22/0000Z 12.5N 119.5W    40 KT
 
 
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