ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2005 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAD INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING... AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM... SUPPORTED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM ALL CLASSIFYING AGENCIES. HOWEVER... RECENT SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS SHEARED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BANDING FEATURE... AND THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY. THEREFORE... BASED ON THE SHORT TERM CLOUD PATTERN CHANGES... WE WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL AGREE ON A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. IN FACT... THE GFDL FORECASTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE SHIPS MODEL. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/7. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A MID- LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THIS STEERING CURRENT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER- LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT FASTER BEYOND 36 HOURS TO CONFORM WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 12.2N 104.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 12.3N 105.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 12.2N 107.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 11.9N 108.3W 40 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 11.5N 109.8W 40 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 11.0N 113.1W 45 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 11.5N 116.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 22/0000Z 12.5N 119.5W 40 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 17-Oct-2005 03:10:26 UTC