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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2005
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS
STRUGGLING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WHILE THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. DVORAK NUMBERS ARE 2.5 FROM SAB AND
AFWA AND 2.0 FROM TAFB. GIVEN THE SHEARING PATTERN...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS A CONSERVATIVE 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS FURTHER TO THE RIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS NOW 290/6. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC REASONING HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...IN THAT THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY ALL
THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REACH ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT BY 18-24 HOURS...
THEN SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF TD-16E SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD OR SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF DUE WEST BEYOND 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...BASED ON
AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION...AND LESS OF A TURN TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 27C-28C SSTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WHILE THE CURRENT VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20 KT IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 10-15 KT IN 36 HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST. AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE...CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 36
HOURS. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL STORM
STATUS...IT COULD BECOME ONE MUCH SOONER IF THE SHEAR RELAXES JUST
A LITTLE BIT.
 
FORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 11.8N 104.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 11.9N 104.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 11.9N 105.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 11.7N 107.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 11.5N 108.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 11.0N 110.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 11.0N 113.8W    40 KT
120HR VT     21/1800Z 11.5N 117.0W    40 KT
 
 
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