ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN OCT 16 2005 INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TD-16E HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED AND DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD -80C HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AR T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA... AND 25 KT FROM SAB. AN EARLIER UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 1005 MB AND 33 KT... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. INITIAL MOTION IS 270/4. A LARGE AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL TO SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO TO SLOWLY BUILD/SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF TD-16E SHOULD ACT TO FORCE THE CYCLONE IN A GENERAL WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK... EXCEPT THAT THE FORECAST TIME LENGTH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 120 HOURS NOW THAT THE SHIPS AND THE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE ALIVE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER AT LEAST 28C SSTS FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IN FACT... THE WATER MAY BE WARMER THAN THAT BASED ON AN SST REPORT OF 84F/29C FROM DRIFTING BUOY 32640 LOCATED NORTH OF TD-16E. THE CURRENT VERTICAL SHEAR OF 21 KT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 KT AFTER 48 HOURS... SO SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 42 KT BY 96 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 11.0N 102.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 10.9N 103.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 10.8N 103.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 10.5N 104.8W 35 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 10.3N 106.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 9.9N 108.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 9.5N 111.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 21/0600Z 9.5N 115.5W 35 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 16-Oct-2005 09:10:25 UTC