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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005
 
VISIBLE AND EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT A SMALL CIRCULATION
CENTER JUST BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF
DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT 25 KT...AS DOES
THE INITIAL INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLIES CONTINUE TO
HAMPER DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE SHIPS
MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE MODERATE SHEAR WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAKENING TREND...BASED OFF OF THE SHIPS...WITH THE DEPRESSION
BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 270/3. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST A RELATIVELY WEAK
LOW/MID-LAYER EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF  MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE
FORWARD MOTION OF THE REMNANT LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BUT WILL REFLECT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION BEYOND 48
HOURS...AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE SHALLOW MEAN BAM.
  
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 11.0N 102.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 11.0N 102.7W    25 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 11.0N 103.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 10.9N 104.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 10.7N 104.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 10.3N 107.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 16-Oct-2005 02:55:26 UTC