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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005
 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E HAS
DECREASED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...WITH ONE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
REMAINING NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB...AND 25 KT FROM SAB AND
AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  THERE IS POOR TO FAIR
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND NONE ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/2.  THE DEPRESSION IS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE AREA
NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W-125W.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS TROUGH SHOULD FILL STARTING IN ABOUT 48-72 HR...AND THE RIDGE
SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BUILD WESTWARD.  THIS MEANS IN THE LONGER
TERM THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TAKE A WESTWARD TRACK.  HOWEVER...THINGS
ARE LESS CLEAR IN THE SHORT TERM.  THE GFDL...BAMD...AND BAMM CALL
FOR AN INITIAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO
THE TROUGH.  THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF CALL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
MOVE STRAIGHT WESTWARD.  THE NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS CALL FOR
LITTLE MOTION AS THE SYSTEM GETS STRETCHED ALONG THE ITCZ.  GIVEN
THE SPREAD...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE THE SLOW MOTION
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH IN DEFERENCE TO THE TROUGH AND THE GFDL FORECAST.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS AS TO HOW MUCH.  THE GFS FORECAST A BURST OF
SHEAR IN 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE TO VALUES THAT WOULD LET
THE CYCLONE STRENGTHEN.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CANADIAN FORECASTS
A MUCH MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...WITH STRONGER SHEAR AND A LONGER
TIME BEFORE IT DECREASES.  THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF THE
DEPRESSION AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL SEEN NEARBY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MAY ALSO BE INHIBITING FACTORS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL THUS
BE ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE LESS BULLISH SHIPS MODEL RATHER THAN
LEANING TOWARD THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL.  WHILE THE FORECAST
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY AT 96-120 HR...IT IS STILL A
LITTLE BELOW WHAT SHIPS IS FORECASTING.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 11.0N 101.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 11.1N 102.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 11.1N 102.8W    35 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 11.2N 103.4W    35 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 11.3N 104.1W    40 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 11.5N 105.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 11.5N 107.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     20/0600Z 11.5N 108.5W    45 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Saturday, 15-Oct-2005 08:40:22 UTC