ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI OCT 14 2005 SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 400 NMI SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALSO IMPROVED... AS HAVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TAFB REPORTED A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT WITH A DATA T-NUMBER OF T2.4/35 KT... AND THE 3HR ODT AVERAGE WAS T2.9/44 KT WITH A PEAK RAW ODT VALUE OF T3.5/55 KT. HOWEVER... CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED IN THE CURVED BAND ON THE WEST SIDE SINCE 00Z... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY...OR POSSIBLY A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST. THE NHC MODELS ARE WIDELY DIVERGENT WITH A MOTION BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. THE GFDL TAKES THE DEPRESSION WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY AND INTENSIFIES IT INTO AN 81-KT HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS. THE REST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM RELATIVELY WEAK AND EVEN DISSIPATE IT BY 48 HOURS. GIVEN THAT STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AT THIS TIME AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD... ONLY A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE GENERAL TREND INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY... THE GFDL IS QUITE ROBUST IN INTENSIFYING THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE GFDL HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD LESSER INTENSIFICATION WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN SINCE 00Z YESTERDAY WHEN IT WAS FORECASTING A 95-KT HURRICANE. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE... AND THE SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM AND FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IN WHICH THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY CALLS FOR VERY MODEST INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WHICH ONLY BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 44 KT BY 96 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 11.0N 101.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 11.0N 101.9W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 11.0N 102.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 11.0N 103.2W 35 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 11.0N 103.9W 40 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 11.0N 105.3W 40 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 11.0N 106.6W 40 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 11.0N 108.0W 40 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 15-Oct-2005 03:10:22 UTC