Hurricane OTIS
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TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON OCT 03 2005
EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND A 0126Z QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY SOLUTION
INDICATE THAT OTIS REMAINS SHEARED ABOUT 45 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE REMAINING CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
AGENCIES ARE 35 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND AN
UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN OTIS TO
A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...WITH DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 330/6. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITHIN THE
LOW/MID-LAYER STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE EXTENDING OVER MEXICO.
AFTERWARD...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A NARROW LOW/MID- LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA CAUSING
OTIS TO DRIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AND THE SHALLOW GFS
BETA ADVECTION MODEL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...KEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
OFFSHORE...PARALLELING THE COAST...THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
THE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0900Z 24.0N 112.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 24.7N 113.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 25.5N 113.7W 25 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 26.4N 114.3W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 05/0600Z 27.0N 114.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 06/0600Z 27.6N 115.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/0600Z 28.0N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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