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Hurricane OTIS


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005
 
THE REMAINING CONVECTION IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
EXPOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...WITH THE LOS CABOS MEXICO RADAR
DEPICTING INFREQUENT WEAK RAINBANDS MOVING OVER THE COAST OF BAJA
JUST SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS ARE
DECREASING...30 TO 35 KT...BUT THE CI REMAINS AT 45 KT.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY AS A
COMPROMISE. THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AGREE ON
DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS...BEFORE REACHING THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT...HOWEVER
RETAINS THE SYSTEM AS A 20 KT REMNANT LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN 48
HOURS...AND DISSIPATES IT OVER THE PENINSULA IN 96 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 340/5. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NOGAPS...THE GFDL...AND THE UKMET...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL
MODELS NOW SUGGEST A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT COMMENCING AROUND THE
48 HOUR PERIOD...AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIFTS OUT AND THE
LOW/MID- LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO
WOULD KEEP OTIS AWAY FROM THE COAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED THREE MODEL CLUSTER...INDICATING A WEAK LOW
MOVING ONSHORE IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 23.4N 112.4W    40 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 24.1N 112.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 25.0N 113.3W    25 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 25.9N 113.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 26.9N 113.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     06/0000Z 28.4N 113.8W    20 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 03-Oct-2005 02:55:26 UTC