| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Hurricane OTIS (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005
 
THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE TO THE EYE WALL STRUCTURE OF
OTIS THIS EVENING. BOTH SHORTWAVE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT EAST-NORTHEAST TILT. UW-CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
INCHED ITS WAY JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE AXIS. THE SHIPS
MODEL ALSO INDICATES MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL POSITION IS NUDGED WEST OF
THE SATELLITE FIXES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TILT. A 0205Z SSM/I
MICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOULD HELP TO CLARIFY THIS DELEMA. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 75 KT BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF 65 AND 77
KT DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS...GFDL AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/3. OTIS REMAINS WITHIN A BREAK IN
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE
WEST IS COUNTER BALANCING THE STEERING CURRENT OF THE RIDGE OVER
MEXICO...CAUSING THIS SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH SLIGHT FORWARD SPEED DISPARITIES AFTER LANDFALL. THE
ECMWF AND THE UKMET DEPICT A CONSIDERABLY WEAKER TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WITH EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BEFORE REACHING THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GFS TRACKER LOSES THE WEAKENING TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND BEGINS TO TRACK A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW WEST OF THE
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST IN 72 HOURS. THIS IS INDICATED BY A
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS LIKELY
ERRONEOUS SCENARIO AND THE UKMET/ECMWF DISSIPATION PROGNOSIS ARE
DISCOUNTED IN THE FORECAST SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND
FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF
AND THE UKMET...AND THE GFS BEYOND 72 HOURS. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS AS IT REACHES MAINLAND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 22.3N 111.9W    75 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 22.9N 112.2W    70 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 24.2N 112.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 25.9N 112.9W    60 KT
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 27.5N 113.1W    50 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 29.9N 113.1W    30 KT
 96HR VT     06/0000Z 32.0N 113.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN