Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane OTIS


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005
 
THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE TO THE EYE WALL STRUCTURE OF
OTIS THIS EVENING. BOTH SHORTWAVE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT EAST-NORTHEAST TILT. UW-CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
INCHED ITS WAY JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE AXIS. THE SHIPS
MODEL ALSO INDICATES MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL POSITION IS NUDGED WEST OF
THE SATELLITE FIXES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TILT. A 0205Z SSM/I
MICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOULD HELP TO CLARIFY THIS DELEMA. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 75 KT BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF 65 AND 77
KT DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS...GFDL AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/3. OTIS REMAINS WITHIN A BREAK IN
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE
WEST IS COUNTER BALANCING THE STEERING CURRENT OF THE RIDGE OVER
MEXICO...CAUSING THIS SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH SLIGHT FORWARD SPEED DISPARITIES AFTER LANDFALL. THE
ECMWF AND THE UKMET DEPICT A CONSIDERABLY WEAKER TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WITH EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BEFORE REACHING THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GFS TRACKER LOSES THE WEAKENING TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND BEGINS TO TRACK A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW WEST OF THE
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST IN 72 HOURS. THIS IS INDICATED BY A
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS LIKELY
ERRONEOUS SCENARIO AND THE UKMET/ECMWF DISSIPATION PROGNOSIS ARE
DISCOUNTED IN THE FORECAST SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND
FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF
AND THE UKMET...AND THE GFS BEYOND 72 HOURS. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS AS IT REACHES MAINLAND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 22.3N 111.9W    75 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 22.9N 112.2W    70 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 24.2N 112.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 25.9N 112.9W    60 KT
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 27.5N 113.1W    50 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 29.9N 113.1W    30 KT
 96HR VT     06/0000Z 32.0N 113.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 02-Oct-2005 03:10:24 UTC