ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005 THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...BUT CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A RING OF FAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION COMPLETELY ENCIRCLING THE EYE... AND RECENT PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE EYEWALL IS STILL INTACT...PERHAPS A LITTLE ERODED ON THE WEST SIDE. DVORAK T NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN TO 4.0 BUT CI NUMBERS ARE 5.0. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD TO 85 KT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS...AND THE WATERS BENEATH THE HURRICANE WILL ONLY COOL GRADUALLY...SO ONLY A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE OTIS CROSSES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...STILL LIKELY AS A HURRICANE. OTIS IS STILL MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...PERHAPS 315/3. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY INDUCE A NORTHWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FASTER THAN THE NOGAPS BUT SLOWER THAN THE GFS...AND FAVORING THE GFDL SOLUTION WHICH TAKES A WEAKENING OTIS OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND INTO ARIZONA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DISSIPATING IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS. THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE FOR ONLY ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. SINCE OTIS HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD SUCH THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 21.9N 111.8W 85 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.5N 112.2W 80 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 23.6N 112.6W 80 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 25.2N 113.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 27.0N 113.3W 65 KT...INLAND BAJA PENINSULA 72HR VT 04/1200Z 31.0N 113.0W 40 KT...INLAND N MEXICO 96HR VT 05/1200Z 34.0N 112.5W 25 KT...INLAND ARIZONA 120HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 01-Oct-2005 15:25:22 UTC