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Hurricane OTIS


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005
 
THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...BUT
CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A RING OF FAIRLY DEEP
CONVECTION COMPLETELY ENCIRCLING THE EYE... AND RECENT PASSIVE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE EYEWALL IS STILL
INTACT...PERHAPS A LITTLE ERODED ON THE WEST SIDE.  DVORAK T
NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN TO 4.0 BUT CI NUMBERS ARE 5.0.  THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD TO 85 KT.  VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FOR
AT LEAST 24 HOURS...AND THE WATERS BENEATH THE HURRICANE WILL ONLY
COOL GRADUALLY...SO ONLY A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE OTIS CROSSES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...STILL LIKELY AS A HURRICANE.

OTIS IS STILL MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...PERHAPS 315/3.  A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY INDUCE A NORTHWARD
MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...FASTER THAN THE NOGAPS BUT SLOWER THAN THE GFS...AND
FAVORING THE GFDL SOLUTION WHICH TAKES A WEAKENING OTIS OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND INTO ARIZONA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
DISSIPATING IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS.
 
THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE
FOR ONLY ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT
COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. SINCE OTIS HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD
SUCH THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...A
HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE PENINSULA.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 21.9N 111.8W    85 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 22.5N 112.2W    80 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 23.6N 112.6W    80 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 25.2N 113.0W    70 KT
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 27.0N 113.3W    65 KT...INLAND BAJA PENINSULA
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 31.0N 113.0W    40 KT...INLAND N MEXICO
 96HR VT     05/1200Z 34.0N 112.5W    25 KT...INLAND ARIZONA
120HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 01-Oct-2005 15:25:22 UTC