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Hurricane OTIS


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005
 
OTIS CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE REACHED 5.0 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 90 KNOTS. OTIS HAS PROBABLY PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THEN NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. 
THEREAFTER...A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE OVER COOLER
WATERS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN BUT OTIS IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A HURRICANE.
|
THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A
GENERAL NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS SHOULD BEGIN SOON. OTIS IS
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY SEEN PLUNGING SOUTHEASTWARD
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES.  THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CORE OF
OTIS NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 48
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE
FOR 24 HR OR MORE.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY.  BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOTION OF OTIS DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...NO CHANGE IN WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0900Z 21.9N 111.7W    90 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 22.5N 111.9W    90 KT
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 23.5N 112.4W    85 KT
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 25.0N 113.0W    80 KT
 48HR VT     03/0600Z 26.5N 113.2W    70 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     04/0600Z 29.5N 113.5W    45 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     05/0600Z 32.5N 113.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     06/0600Z 34.5N 112.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Saturday, 01-Oct-2005 08:55:24 UTC